Updated 12/5
As posted on the lottery applicant page, we have 2295 total lottery applicants for the 2013 race.
122 applicants with four tickets = 488 tickets
207 applicants with three tickets = 621 tickets
480 applicants with two tickets = 960 tickets
1486 applicants with one ticket = 1486 tickets
Total tickets in the hat = 3555
Here is the list of tickets (178 page pdf)
We are going to draw 270 unique names in the lottery and then an additional five from the lottery within the lottery. That is, the folks in the audience who have not been selected up to that point. Based on 3555 total tickets and 270 names drawn, the odds of getting selected have been updated as follows:
one ticket odds = 7.9%
two ticket odds = 15.2%
three ticket odds = 21.9%
four ticket odds = 28.0%
We used a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate these updated odds.
The lottery will take place at the Placer HS auditorium. We will begin introductions a little before 9am and start drawing names right at 9am. We expect to be done by 11am. Note that there is no food or drink allowed in the auditorium (water ok).
As names are pulled from the hat, they will be posted at ultralive.net as close to real-time as possible. There will also be a live video feed.
For a little historical perspective, here are the number of lottery applicants and ticket counts in the lottery since 2000.
2000 583
2001 556
2002 529
2003 638
2004 740
2005 791
2006 841
2007 1,048
2008 1,350 Fire year
2009 337 out of 390 returned 54 two-time losers, 34 autos for a total of 425 entrants
2010 1,693 Last year for two-time losers
2011 1,786 First year for multi-tickets in the hat. One ticket: 1286, two tickets: 500
2012 1,940 One ticket: 1221, two tickets: 461, three tickets: 258
2013 2295 One ticket: 1486, two tickets: 480, three tickets: 207, four tickets: 122
