The 2016 Lottery will be held December 5, 2015, 8:30 am PST.
The number of applications received each year greatly exceeds the number that can be accepted. The annual lottery is the method used to select those who will participate.
Everything starts with this: Our permit with the U.S. Forest Service limits us to 369 runners. Why this odd number? In 1984, Congress enacted the California Wilderness Act, which created the Granite Chief Wilderness. The Western States Trail crosses the Granite Chief Wilderness, at about miles 6-10. Normally, organized events are not permitted in wilderness areas but, as Western States pre-existed the wilderness designation, we were able to get the race “grandfathered” into the legislation, with the proviso that we have no more runners than we had prior to the passage of the act. In 1984, it happened that there were 369 starters and that has been the magic number ever since.
The Forest Service allows us to use a five-year running average of 369. Historically, we have found that about 5% of those chosen in the lottery will not make it to the starting line due to injury, illness, or other “real life” interventions. So, we will typically choose about 400 runners total. This number will vary slightly from year to year, depending on where we are on the five-year average.
The annual lottery was instituted in an effort to provide for the fairest means possible of choosing the starting field. Registration for the lottery is open for a period of one week in November. Applicants must provide valid payment information, but will not be charged until and if selected in the lottery. Proof of a completion of a qualifying run during the qualifying period will be required at registration.
All other runners’ names are put into a “hat” and drawn at random by members of the audience at a public lottery held at Placer High School in Auburn each fall.
Each runner who enters the lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, or Golden Ticket spot) will have additional tickets in the hat when entering the lottery the following year, thus improving the probability of being selected. Every lottery applicant will receive 2^(n-1) tickets in the hat for each consecutive failure to gain entry where n is the number of years applied. As an example: If a runner applies and fails to gain entry two consecutive times, they will have four tickets in the hat when entered in the lottery the third consecutive year (2^2), eight in fourth consecutive year (2^3), 16 in fifth (2^4), 32 in sixth (2^5), etc. Conversely, if a runner enters the lottery one year, is not chosen and does not enter the following year, they will not have a extra tickets in the hat when applying the year after that.
During the period between the close of registrations in November and the December lottery, the contents of the hat can be inspected online.
The probability of being selected is a function of the number of applicant names in the hat versus the number of slots available to be filled. For example, the number of entrants in the 2015 hat was 2566, with a total ticket count of 6601. Based on an expected draw of 270 and using a monte carlo simulation, the probability of being selected with a single name in the hat was 4.7%.
The lottery is open to the public, and all runners, friends and family are encouraged to attend. Special prizes are given to lottery winners who are present. Also, a Bonus Drawing at the end of the lottery gives those present “one last chance” to be selected.
Check the WS Calendar for the December date of the next Lottery Day.
Results of the December lottery are posted on the web in real-time at lottery.ultralive.net.
|1 Year||2 Year||3 Year||4 Year||5 Year||6 Year||7 Year||Notes|
|2008||1350||Fire year, race cancelled|
|2009||no lottery||Rollovers, two-time losers, autos|
|2010||1693||Last year for two-time losers|
|2015||2566||1427||641||281||136||57||24||First year of 2^(n-1)|