The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak throughout the country
and the world has been extremely dynamic over the past few days. The decisions we
make in the coming days and weeks — individually and as a community — will
have profound impacts on the intensity and the duration of coronavirus that all
of us experience.
On March 15th, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) issued new guidelines recommending that organizers of in-person events — including sporting events — with 50 or more people cancel or postpone those events for the next eight weeks. We are very aware of the potential impact the postponement and cancellation of races will have on our runners and broader community. We plan to address issues related to WSER qualifiers, Golden Ticket races, and other things — including the feasibility of holding the race itself — as the situation develops and becomes more clear. For now, we will continue to make decisions based on the health, safety and well-being of our runners and broader community and in accordance with governmental rules and guidelines. For more information on COVID-19 and the ultrarunning community, see Corrine Malcolm’s extremely informative article in irunfar, COVID-19: A Trail Running and Ultrarunning Community Guide.
We thank you for your patience and consideration during this
time of uncertainty. We will keep you
informed as things develop and we figure out how to address issues raised by
this public health crisis. Our community is stronger together and we will need
to draw on that strength and resilience in the coming days and months as we
navigate these unchartered waters together.
Sincerely,
Craig Thornley, Race Director The Western States Board of Trustees
We continue to understand and share the concerns of people throughout the world regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and remain committed to your health and well-being.
We recognize that the situation is dynamic and evolves each day, with new information and understanding that informs the health and safety protocols issued by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Placer County Public Health. To the greatest extent possible, Western States will be implementing preventive measures and controls to ensure the health and safety of our runners, race volunteers, crew members and spectators. We continue to review and adapt our planning strategies as more is learned every day. All decisions regarding our event will be made in concert with advice and input from our partners in the health community, most notably Placer County Public Health and the State of California.
We do not anticipate cancelling or postponing our event at this time.
Since the situation is so dynamic, however, we will continue to regularly evaluate this decision based upon what the scientific community learns about coronavirus and what public health officials believe to be in the best interest of the communities they serve.
This is a challenging time for all of us. Perhaps the most important challenge of them all is to keep yourself and those around you healthy. We ask that you follow the protocols and information that are presented through the CDC’s website regarding good hygiene, travel abroad restrictions and what to do if you feel you are experiencing coronavirus symptoms.
The 2020 race lottery will be held on December 7, 2019 in front of a live audience at the Placer High School auditorium in Auburn, CA beginning at 8:30 a.m. PST. We expect to be done by 11:00 a.m. As names are pulled from the hat, they will be posted at https://www.ultralive.net/lottery as close to real-time as possible. There will also be a live video feed on our Facebook Page.
Demand for the race continues to grow. We have a record 6666 applicants entered in the 2020 race lottery — an increase of nearly 14% over the 5862 applicants for the 2019 race.
Each applicant ran a qualifying race of 100k or longer within the last year to be eligible to enter. Some have done so for many years. Each runner who enters the lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, or HOKA ONE ONE Golden Ticket spot) will have additional tickets in the hat when entering the lottery the following year, thus improving the probability of being selected. Every lottery applicant will receive 2^(n-1) tickets in the hat where n is the number of consecutive years entering the lottery without gaining entry. That is, 1st year applicants = 1 ticket, 2nd year = 2 tickets, 3rd year = 4 tickets, 4th year = 8 tickets, and so on. The maximum number of years for the 2020 lottery is 8 years or 128 tickets.
Beginning with the 2019 Lottery we introduced two different byes, or ways to sit out a lottery and not lose ticket counts. The generic One-Time Bye can be used by anybody for any reason as long as they have tickets to carry forward. This can only be used once in a lifetime and is only a one-year reprieve. The Pregnancy Lottery Deferral allows women with accrued lottery tickets who are pregnant or give birth during the qualifying period to re-enter either of the next two lotteries and maintain their consecutive lottery status. There is no limit to the number of times this can be used. Here are the lists of 2020 and 2019 Lottery Bye Declarations.
As we began in 2017, we are using a wait list model instead of overbooking like we had for decades to get the target 369 starters which is the number we are legally allowed to run through the Granite Chief Wilderness. 102 of those 369 are automatic entrants. 264 will be drawn in the lottery. The final three entrants to get to 369 will be drawn from those in the audience. We will also draw an additional 50 names for the ordered wait list. The probabilities of being selected as one of the 264 in the lottery or 50 on the wait list (314) are as follows:
9 runners with 128 tickets, each has a 80.4% chance of getting drawn
54 runners with 64 tickets, each has a 55.8% chance of getting drawn
126 runners with 32 tickets, each has a 33.5% chance of getting drawn
315 runners with 16 tickets, each has a 18.5% chance of getting drawn
549 runners with 8 tickets, each has a 9.7% chance of getting drawn
914 runners with 4 tickets, each has a 5.0% chance of getting drawn
1447 runners with 2 tickets, each has a 2.5% chance of getting drawn
3250 runners with 1 ticket, each has a 1.3% chance of getting drawn
So what are the chances of getting into the race if you are selected for the wait list? In 2019 the last person to get a spot on the starting line was drawn 31st. In 2018 the 36th person on the list got in, in 2017 the 39th person got in. Here is data for the 2019, 2018 and 2017 wait lists including when each runner was offered a spot.
Good luck to all.
Posted in General Interest, Race News | on: November 29th, 2019 by Craig |
Comments Off on 2020 Lottery Statistics
HOKA ONE ONE NAMED PRESENTING SPONSOR OF WESTERN STATES 100
The world’s oldest 100-mile trail race announces presenting sponsorship agreement with HOKA ONE ONE®, including “Golden Ticket” races
AUBURN, Calif. – HOKA ONE ONE® has been named the presenting
sponsor of the Western States 100-Mile Endurance Run, WSER President John
Medinger announced.
“As one of the leading premium running brands in the world,
HOKA has a recognized place in our sport as an innovative voice for competitors
of all abilities,” Medinger said. “In the past few years, HOKA has shown what a
tremendous reach it has not only for trail runners, but in telling the human stories
that are so integral to the heartbeat of our sport.”
“Every year part of Western States’ job is to provide the
canvas that will help tell 369 individual stories. Our partnership with HOKA will
unquestionably help us bring those 369 stories into greater focus.”
Added race director Craig Thornley: “We are extremely
excited that HOKA has made such a strong commitment to our mission as an
organization, which is to serve the ultra community as one of the thoughtful
leaders in our sport and culminates each June with putting on the
highest-quality, yet intimate 100-mile experience we can possibly present for
all of our runners. As we visited with HOKA, it was clear that our historic
mission clearly resonated with their values as well. This is an agreement that
is going to greatly benefit the experiences of our runners.”
“HOKA
was born in the mountains and gained an early foothold in the trail
ultrarunning community, so it is only natural that we would help put on the
original trail 100-mile race,” said Mike McManus, Director of Global Sports
Marketing for HOKA ONE ONE. “The Western States Endurance Run is an iconic
event with an incredible community behind it, and one where some of the
best-known legends of ultrarunning are born. We are beyond thrilled and proud
to be the presenting sponsor.”
Also as part of the agreement, the traditional “Golden
Ticket” series of races will be re-branded the “HOKA ONE ONE Golden Ticket
Races.” The series, which allows the top two female and male finishers in each
race to gain entry to that year’s Western States, for 2020 will consist of
January’s Bandera 100K in Bandera, Texas; February’s Black Canyon 100K in
Spring Valley, Arizona; March’s 74-mile Georgia Death Race in Dawsonville,
Georgia; April’s Lake Sonoma 50-miler in Lake Sonoma, California and The
Canyons 100K in Foresthill, California.
ABOUT THE WESTERN STATES 100-MILE ENDURANCE RUN: The Western States 100-Mile Endurance Run, first held in 1974, is the world’s oldest 100-mile trail run. Held on the last weekend in June in Olympic Valley, Calif., Western States brings together runners from across the globe and from all 50 states on an iconic trail through the historic California Gold Country for what is considered the country’s most competitive 100-mile trail race.
About HOKA ONE ONE®
HOKA ONE ONE® produces premium performance footwear for athletes of all types. Born in the mountains, HOKA ONE ONE shoes were initially distinguished by their oversized midsoles; today they are designed with the same enhanced cushioning, inherent stability and problem-solving inspiration to meet the running, walking, fitness and outdoor needs of a wide variety of users. With a bold and often unexpected approach, HOKA ONE ONE empowers athletes of all levels to feel like they can fly. For more information, visit hokaoneone.com or follow @hokaoneone #timetofly.
Here are the results of the independent Western States Endurance Run (WSER) Runner Survey from the June 29-30, 2019 race, conducted by ultralive.net.
WSER runner registration takes place in Squaw Valley Friday before race day and 2019 allowed for another year of the ultralive survey team to be in position. Runners are happy to participate while they wait in line for check-in providing us a 94% participation rate of the 369 starters.
The runners were asked the following questions. Data was recorded by bib number allowing us to correlate the responses to finish times to make the analysis even more interesting. All data however is compiled and reported anonymously:
Number of 100’s completed
Number of years running ultras
Will they use a crew?
Will they use a pacer?
Did they attend the Memorial weekend training camp
Shoe brand
Sock brand
Hydration System
Pack type/brand
Lighting brand
Watch brand
Did they pay for coaching services?
A few questions about lodging for the race to share with host sites
This year’s race saw a new course record and the top 10 men all finishing under 16 hours. Of the 369 starters we saw 319 finishers (86.4%) under 30 hours of which 130 (35.2%) finished under the coveted 24 hour mark for a Silver Buckle.
A total of 296 of the 319 finshers (92.7%) are in the survey.
Note: All graphs show numbers related to runners who participated in the survey and finished the race. DNS and DNF are not included in the final graphs.
Finish Hour
For sub 24 hour finishers completing the survey, 45 out of 130 (37%) finished in the 23rd hour of the race to get a silver buckle. In the last two hours of the race, there were 90 (30%) finishers. The busiest times on the track are typically between 4-5 AM and 9-11 AM on Sunday morning and 2019 proved no different. The graphs show the distribution of finishers by hour (14 hours to 29 hours).
The cool temperatures in this year’s race definitely attributed to the high finish rate of 86.4%.
Shoes
This is the sixth year Hoka was the most popular shoe (36.1%) for all finishers with Altra staying in second place with 24%. Salomon (9.5%) again was ahead of Brooks (6.8%) which was the second most popular shoe just four years ago (2015). The rankings remained the same for the top 3 most popular shoes with the sub-24 hour finishers as well. We acknowledge some runners did plan to change shoes during the race and may have changed to a different brand so we asked that they provide the brand they planned to start the race wearing.
Socks
Injinji was just barely the favorite over Drymax for the most popular sock choice for finishers. And it was Drymax over Injinji for the sub-24 hour finishers. The “other” category was quite large this year and runners seem to like a large variety of socks.
Paid Coaching Services
More than 30% of the runners use a paid coaching service overall. Sub-24 hour finishers were slightly less likely to use a coach. And it is interesting to see that nearly half of the runners with a DNF used a coaching service.
Memorial Weekend Training Camp
The training camp held on Memorial Weekend is a great weekend to get on the course for those running, supporting or spectating the race. Only a third of the runners in the survey attended the camp. However, attending camp does not seem to decrease the chance of a DNF as 38% of the runners who did not complete the race were at the training camp.
Lighting
Petzl’s remains the favorite light brand for all runners regardless of finish time (sub or over-24 hour) with Black Diamond second again. All the top 10 men completed the race (under 16 hours) and did not require a headlamp!
Hydration System
This was a new question this year and the most popular method is a combination of pack and bottles. Overall half the finishers surveyed used a pack in their hydration system. For sub 24 hour finishers just hand held bottles was the most popular method.
Packs
Salomon was the top choice for all runners (sub 24 and overall) with Ultimate Direction and Nathan in second and third.
Watches
Another new question this year was about what kind of watch (in most cases a GPS watch) would be used. Just the brand was noted and not the model. Garmin was the most popular watch followed by Suunto. Interesting that many runners chose to run without a watch at all.
Crew and Pacer
The use of a crew and/or pacer are personal preference during a 100-mile race but may be more popular at WS – what are your thoughts? The following chart shows the correlation of using a pacer or crew to finish hour. Crew use is basically 90% regardless of finish time (or DNF).
Special recognition should go to the 12 runners in the survey with no crew and no pacer. Four (4) of them managed to finish in less than 24 hours to earn a well deserved silver buckle.
Data Accuracy
369 runners started the 2019 Western States 100 Mile Endurance Run
Ultralive.net team surveyed a majority of those runners through the registration process at Squaw Final survey reflects N = 346 (93.7%) athletes though individual questions may vary if athlete did not answer or know answer. And also note that this analysis was done by amateur statisticians and inspired by the Ironman “bike survey” in Kona.
Credits
The team would like to thank all of the runners who took time to talk with us and answer these questions. Many thanks to the ultralive.net survey team: Kara Teklinski, Emily Yu and David Canfield.
