Craig

The 2015 Lottery was held in front of a live and remote audience on December 6, 2014 in Auburn, CA. The master of ceremonies was five-time champion, 25-time sub-24 hour finisher, past WSER president and current vice president Tim Twietmeyer.

As described in my presentation before the drawing, the target for total number of entrants this year is 387: 114 automatics, 270 in the lottery drawing, and 3 in the bonus lottery.

114 Automatics

• 27 Race Admin (aid stations, trail crew, etc)
• 25 Montrail Ultra Cup (20 top runners, 5 others)
• 18 Top Ten Runners from 2014
• 16 Sponsor slots
• 11 Raffle Winners
• 6 UTWT elite foreign athletes
• 5 Foreign Consideration
• 2 WSER Trustees
• 2 Runners going for 10th finish
• 1 Special Consideration
• 1 Founder (Gordy)

 

270 Lottery Drawing

With 2566 entrants and their 6601 tickets, our pre-lottery monte carlo simulations matched closely to what we actually drew.

• 1427 first year with 1 ticket – predicted 67.7, actual 65
• 641 second year with 2 tickets – predicted 59.2. actual 55
• 281 third year with 4 tickets – predicted 49.6, actual 49
• 136 fourth year with 8 tickets – predicted 43.8, actual 46
• 57 fifth year with 16 tickets – predicted 30.8, actual 37
• 24 sixth year with 32 tickets – predicted 18.9, actual 18

We drew 49 duplicate names for a total of 319 total draws to get the 270 unique names. Predicted was 313 draws.

As we always do, there were 3 additional names drawn in the Bonus Lottery at the end to give those in attendance a last chance. Those three lucky folks are:

• Sarah McGinn
• Jeff Boutte
• David Rhodes

Congratulations to all who were selected.

• Lottery Results on ultralive.net
• Taped Video Feed from ultrasportslive.tv
• 2015 Entrants List on wser.org
• For more pics of the lottery see our Facebook Page.

Last updated: November 22, 2014 at 19:01 pm

There are 2566 applicants entered in the December 6, 2014 lottery for the 42nd running of the Western States Endurance Run on June 27-28, 2015 (a.k.a the 2015 Lottery).

As described on our lottery page, each runner who enters the lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, or MUC spot) will have additional names in the hat when entering the lottery the following year, thus improving the probability of being selected. Every lottery applicant will receive 2^(n-1) tickets in the hat where n is the number of consecutive years entering the lottery without gaining entry. That is, 1st year applicants = 1 ticket, 2nd year = 2 tickets, 3rd year = 4 tickets, 4th year = 8 tickets, 5th year = 16 tickets, 6th year = 32 tickets. 2010 was the first year we started accumulating tickets so maximum number of years for the 2015 lottery is 6, or 32 tickets.

Here is the final list of 2015 lottery applicants and here is the pdf of the 6601 lottery tickets that will go in the barrel.

We expect to draw 270 unique names, and have calculated the probabilities of being selected as follows:

24 folks with 32 tickets, each has a 78.8% chance of getting drawn
57 folks with 16 tickets, each has a 54.0% chance of getting drawn
136 folks with 8 tickets, each has a 32.2% chance of getting drawn
281 folks with 4 tickets, each has a 17.6% chance of getting drawn
641 folks with 2 tickets, each has a 9.3% chance of getting drawn
1427 folks with 1 ticket, each has a 4.7% chance of getting drawn

The lottery will take place at the Placer HS auditorium, in Auburn, CA. We will begin introductions a little before 8:30 am PST and then begin drawing names shortly thereafter. We expect to be done by 11 a.m. Note that there is no food or drink allowed in the auditorium (water ok).

As names are pulled from the hat, they will be posted at ultralive.net as close to real-time as possible. There will also be a live video feed at ultrasportslive.tv.

 

June 28-29, 2014

• 376 Starters, 296 Finishers = 78.7% Finish Rate
• 129 Silver Buckle Winners, 167 Bronze Buckle Winners
• Champions: Rob Krar 14:53:22, Stephanie Howe 18:01:42
• Andy Jones-Wilkins and Erik Skaden earn 10-day Buckles
• Tom Green earns 1000-Mile Buckle
• High Temp in Auburn on Saturday 89 Degrees (weather history)
• 1700+ volunteers

Full Results and Splits

And here is our 2014 Sizzle Reel from our friends at UltraSportsLive.tv

[vimeo 99862471]

Next year’s race is June 27-28, 2015

On January 25, 2014, the board of trustees changed the policy for number of tickets in the lottery for each consecutive year an applicant applies for the lottery, fails to be selected and otherwise does not gain entry into the race. Instead of a single additional ticket in the hat, the ticket count will increase by 2^(n-1) where n is the number of years applied. This will be in place beginning with the upcoming 2015 race lottery (held in December 2014).

1. First year applicants will have 1 ticket (2^0).
2. Second year applicants will have 2 tickets (2^1).
3. Third year applicants will have 4 tickets (2^2).
4. Fourth year applicants will have 8 tickets (2^3).
5. Fifth year applicants will have 16 tickets (2^4).
6. Sixth year applicants will have 32 tickets (2^5).

This new policy increases the probability of being selected for consecutive lottery losers more significantly than the previous linear model (1,2,3,4,5, etc). As before, if an applicant gains entry into the race either by being selected in the lottery or any other means (MUC, UTWT, Sponsor, Race Admin, etc) the ticket count will start over when they apply for the lottery. Also, as before, in order to gain extra tickets, the applicant must qualify and apply for the lottery each year.

Please see our lottery page for more details.

The 2014 Western States Lottery was held on Saturday December 7, 2013 at the Placer High School Auditorium. Around 250-300 people braved the snow and ice to attend.

This year we had 127 automatic spots that were either designated pre-lottery or are reserved from the 400 total we will accept into the race.

• Top Ten 18 of the top ten men and women are returning
• Raffle 14 from previous two raffle drawings
• Race Admin 29 aid stations and other race administration roles
• Special Consideration 2
• Foreign Consideration 12 – We accepted 12 foreign entrants pre-lottery for global representation
• MUC 23 (out of 30) – There are five races where top three men and women can qualify. We are estimating that not all will be taken.
• UTWT 6 – Ultra-Trail World Tour spots for elite athletes
• Gordy 1 – The founder of the race from 1974
• Board of Trustees 3
• Tenth Finishes 4 – Andy Jones-Wilkins, Erik Skaden, John Nichols, Tom Green are all going for their 10th finish
• Sponsors 15

We pulled 270 names from the barrel of 4307 tickets and 2704 unique names in front of the live audience. This is how many were chosen from each ticket group.

• 101 one ticket holders selected
• 78  two ticket holders
• 45 three ticket holders
• 27 four tickets holders
• 19 five ticket holders

We then did a special drawing from members in the audience for an additional 3 spots. These went to Deno Dean, Dawn Hitchcock, and Tina Frizner.

Here is the video of the Lottery from start to finish.

Here are the results of the Lottery in order drawn.

Congratulations to all accepted runners.

Next year’s lottery will be held on December 6, 2014 at Placer High School in Auburn.

Updated December 4, 2013 1:30 p.m. PST

The rapid growth in number of applicants for the WS lottery, continues. We currently have 2705 applicants entered in the December 7 lottery for the 41st running of the Western States Endurance Run on June 28-29, 2014.

As described on our lottery page, each runner who enters the lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, or MUC spot) will have one additional name in the hat (for a total of two) when entering the lottery the following year, thus improving the probability of being selected. Every lottery applicant will receive an additional name in the hat for each consecutive failure to gain entry.

Here is the final list of applicants and their corresponding ticket counts and also the file of tickets that will get printed and placed in the barrel. Finally, here is the current list of accepted applicants in the race with a column denoting how they got it outside of the lottery.

Based on Monte Carlo Simulations, and a draw of 270 names, we have calculated the probabilities of being selected as follows:

The lottery will take place at the Placer HS auditorium. We will begin introductions a little before 9am and start drawing names right at 9 a.m. We expect to be done by 11 a.m. Note that there is no food or drink allowed in the auditorium (water ok).

As names are pulled from the hat, they will be posted at lottery.ultralive.net as close to real-time as possible. There will also be a live video feed.

 

Keep it fair. Keep it Simple. Raise the Bar.

The goal of having qualifying standards is to ensure that the runner knows what he/she is buying into, and to ensure that he/she has a reasonable chance to finish Western States within the time limit of 30 hours. Historically, the minimum standard has been the completion of a 50 mile run under 11 hours. WS has seen a dramatic increase in the number of applicants in its annual lottery, especially since the cancellation of the race due to fires in 2008. With a 369 starter limit imposed on the race by federal legislation, we accept about 400 runners each year. We reserve about 130 entries for race administration (aid stations, trail crew, sweeps, etc.), Montrail Ultra Cup winners, sponsors, raffle winners, overseas runners, members of the Western States Endurance Run Board of Trustees, etc., thus we draw about 270 names at the lottery each December. Here’s the history of the growth of lottery applicants since 2000:

• 2000 – 583 applicants.
• 2005 – 791 applicants.
• 2008 – 1,350 applicants (fire cancellation).
• 2010 – 1,693 applicants (last year for two-time losers).
• 2011 – 1,786 applicants (first year for multiple tickets in the hat).
• 2012 – 1,940 applicants.
• 2013 – 2,295 applicants.

The chances of being one of the lucky 270 drawn last year, with only a single ticket in the bucket, was a scant 7.9%. With the likelihood of continued increase in demand – which parallels the growth of the sport worldwide – if we continue with our current standards and races, the chances of getting selected in the lottery will soon be below 5%. We don’t believe that is good for the race or the runners who get a qualifying time, enter the lottery, and then get rejected in the lottery, some year after year after year.

The WSER Board of Trustees believes that the run should be open to anybody and is hesitant to make the standard faster or to require a 100 mile qualifying run. In 1974, Gordy Ainsleigh ran 100 miles with the horses but had never run 100 miles before that day. Many people who ran the race in the following years had also never run 100 miles before they ran from Squaw Valley to Auburn. The Board respects that history and still wants to provide the opportunity for a runner to stand at the start of the race, stare up at the steep mountains of Squaw, and have little idea of what lies ahead.

But, the Board also realizes that something needs to change to alleviate the increasing pressure on our lottery. Thus, the qualifying standards for entering the WS lottery beginning with the 2015 race are:

• 100K finish in under 16 hours or;
• 100M finish in time allowed by race.

We have limited the number of qualifying races to the largest trail 100 milers domestically, and the largest 100Ks that are also of significant difficulty. The 100K distance aligns better internationally. Worldwide, we’ve included the largest races but also have the goal of geographic diversity so runners from anywhere in the world have an opportunity to run a qualifying race. There are 63 races on the 2015 qualifying races list.

The 2015 qualifying run must be run from Monday, November 11, 2013 through Sunday, November 9, 2014.