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2015 Lottery Statistics

Last updated: December 4, 2014 at 8:24 am

There are 2566 applicants entered in the December 6, 2014 lottery for the 42nd running of the Western States Endurance Run on June 27-28, 2015 (a.k.a the 2015 Lottery).

As described on our lottery page, each runner who enters the lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, or MUC spot) will have additional names in the hat when entering the lottery the following year, thus improving the probability of being selected. Every lottery applicant will receive 2^(n-1) tickets in the hat where n is the number of consecutive years entering the lottery without gaining entry. That is, 1st year applicants = 1 ticket, 2nd year = 2 tickets, 3rd year = 4 tickets, 4th year = 8 tickets, 5th year = 16 tickets, 6th year = 32 tickets. 2010 was the first year we started accumulating tickets so maximum number of years for the 2015 lottery is 6, or 32 tickets.

Here is the final list of 2015 lottery applicants and here is the pdf of the 6601 lottery tickets that will go in the barrel.

We expect to draw 270 unique names, and have calculated the probabilities of being selected as follows:

24 folks with 32 tickets, each has a 78.8% chance of getting drawn
57 folks with 16 tickets, each has a 54.0% chance of getting drawn
136 folks with 8 tickets, each has a 32.2% chance of getting drawn
281 folks with 4 tickets, each has a 17.6% chance of getting drawn
641 folks with 2 tickets, each has a 9.3% chance of getting drawn
1427 folks with 1 ticket, each has a 4.7% chance of getting drawn

The lottery will take place at the Placer HS auditorium, in Auburn, CA. We will begin introductions a little before 8:30 am PST and then begin drawing names shortly thereafter. We expect to be done by 11 a.m. Note that there is no food or drink allowed in the auditorium (water ok).

As names are pulled from the hat, they will be posted at ultralive.net as close to real-time as possible. There will also be a live video feed at ultrasportslive.tv.

 

ARC Granite Chief Expansion

Dear Friend of Western States,

The Western States 100-Mile Endurance Run needs your help.

In July, it was announced that the American River Conservancy (ARC), a non-profit, 501(c)(3) public-benefit organization based in Coloma, Calif., had signed a purchase contract to acquire 10,000 acres of mountain meadows and old-growth forest at the headwaters of the American River. The purchase area, located immediately west of Lake Tahoe and Squaw Valley, has long been considered by our board to be the most strategically vital area in ensuring that the Western States Trail remains open and accessible for all public recreation for years to come. Once completed, the ARC’s purchase will join together two existing roadless areas, the Wild and Scenic North Fork American River and the Granite Chief Wilderness into a large block of contiguous protected land. The Western States Trail crosses this 10,000-acre of private land. Our board strongly believes that purchase of this land will guarantee the availability of these trails to hikers, runners, and equestrians, and enable the 100 miles of the Western States Trail to qualify for National Trail designation. We’ve agreed to help ARC in the next phase of this effort, which will include fund-raising for the $10.167 million purchase price from the parcel’s private owners. The Western States Endurance Run Foundation has pledged up to $50,000 to match donations made by friends of our organization.

Hodgson's Cabin Near WS Trail

Hodgson’s Cabin Near WS Trail

Against this backdrop, we are seeking your support. Please consider a donation on behalf of this historic effort to ensure that the “high country” portion of the Western States Trail remains open to the public in perpetuity. Deadline for donations in support of this effort is March. 1, 2015. One hundred percent of all donations will go toward the purchase price of $10,167,000, and, if for any reason the American River Conservancy fails to raise sufficient funds to acquire the subject property, then 100 percent of the donations will be returned to the donor. To make a contribution, please go to the Western States website at the following link. https://www.wser.org/granite-chief-wilderness-campaign/

To find out more about the ARC and the acquisition, go to arconservancy.org. Thank you in advance for your consideration regarding this project and your much-appreciated support of our race.

Sincerely,

John Trent
President
Western States 100-Mile Endurance Run Board of Trustees