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2015 Lottery Statistics

Last updated: December 4, 2014 at 8:24 am

There are 2566 applicants entered in the December 6, 2014 lottery for the 42nd running of the Western States Endurance Run on June 27-28, 2015 (a.k.a the 2015 Lottery).

As described on our lottery page, each runner who enters the lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, or MUC spot) will have additional names in the hat when entering the lottery the following year, thus improving the probability of being selected. Every lottery applicant will receive 2^(n-1) tickets in the hat where n is the number of consecutive years entering the lottery without gaining entry. That is, 1st year applicants = 1 ticket, 2nd year = 2 tickets, 3rd year = 4 tickets, 4th year = 8 tickets, 5th year = 16 tickets, 6th year = 32 tickets. 2010 was the first year we started accumulating tickets so maximum number of years for the 2015 lottery is 6, or 32 tickets.

Here is the final list of 2015 lottery applicants and here is the pdf of the 6601 lottery tickets that will go in the barrel.

We expect to draw 270 unique names, and have calculated the probabilities of being selected as follows:

24 folks with 32 tickets, each has a 78.8% chance of getting drawn
57 folks with 16 tickets, each has a 54.0% chance of getting drawn
136 folks with 8 tickets, each has a 32.2% chance of getting drawn
281 folks with 4 tickets, each has a 17.6% chance of getting drawn
641 folks with 2 tickets, each has a 9.3% chance of getting drawn
1427 folks with 1 ticket, each has a 4.7% chance of getting drawn

The lottery will take place at the Placer HS auditorium, in Auburn, CA. We will begin introductions a little before 8:30 am PST and then begin drawing names shortly thereafter. We expect to be done by 11 a.m. Note that there is no food or drink allowed in the auditorium (water ok).

As names are pulled from the hat, they will be posted at ultralive.net as close to real-time as possible. There will also be a live video feed at ultrasportslive.tv.


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