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2014 Lottery Statistics

Updated December 4, 2013 1:30 p.m. PST

The rapid growth in number of applicants for the WS lottery, continues. We currently have 2705 applicants entered in the December 7 lottery for the 41st running of the Western States Endurance Run on June 28-29, 2014.

As described on our lottery page, each runner who enters the lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, or MUC spot) will have one additional name in the hat (for a total of two) when entering the lottery the following year, thus improving the probability of being selected. Every lottery applicant will receive an additional name in the hat for each consecutive failure to gain entry.

Here is the final list of applicants and their corresponding ticket counts and also the file of tickets that will get printed and placed in the barrel. Finally, here is the current list of accepted applicants in the race with a column denoting how they got it outside of the lottery.

Based on Monte Carlo Simulations, and a draw of 270 names, we have calculated the probabilities of being selected as follows:

Tickets # of Entrants Probability (%) Expected # Selected Expected % Selected
1 1727 6.5 112.2 41.6
2 561 12.6 70.6 26.1
3 258 18.3 47.1 17.5
4 106 23.6 25.0 9.2
5 53 28.5 15.1 5.6
Totals 2705 270.0 100.0

The lottery will take place at the Placer HS auditorium. We will begin introductions a little before 9am and start drawing names right at 9 a.m. We expect to be done by 11 a.m. Note that there is no food or drink allowed in the auditorium (water ok).

As names are pulled from the hat, they will be posted at lottery.ultralive.net as close to real-time as possible. There will also be a live video feed.


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