2018 Lottery Statistics

Last updated: December 1, 2017 at 3:03 am

There are a record 4909 applicants for the 2018 Western States lottery. This is a 15% increase over the 4248 applicants for the 2017 lottery.

The lottery will be held on December 2, 2017 in front of a live audience at the Placer High School auditorium in Auburn, CA beginning at 8:30 a.m. We expect to be done by 11:00 a.m. As names are pulled from the hat, they will be posted at http://www.ultralive.net/lottery as close to real-time as possible. There will also be a live video feed on our Facebook Page.

As described on our lottery page, each runner who enters the lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, or Altra Golden Ticket spot) will have additional tickets in the hat when entering the lottery the following year, thus improving the probability of being selected. Every lottery applicant will receive 2^(n-1) tickets in the hat where n is the number of consecutive years entering the lottery without gaining entry. That is, 1st year applicants = 1 ticket, 2nd year = 2 tickets, 3rd year = 4 tickets, 4th year = 8 tickets, 5th year = 16 tickets, 6th year = 32 tickets, 7th year = 64 tickets. The maximum number of years for the 2018 lottery is once again 7, or 64 tickets.

You can view the applicants and their ticket counts and the pdf of the 15074 tickets that will be printed, cut and then put into the barrel.

As we began in 2017, we are using a wait list model instead of overbooking like we had for decades to get the target 369 starters which is the number we are legally allowed to run through the Granite Chief Wilderness. 105 of those 369 are automatic entrants. 261 will be drawn in the lottery. The final three entrants to get to 369 will be drawn from those in the audience. We will also draw an additional 50 names for the ordered wait list. The probabilities for being selected as one of the 261 in the lottery or 50 on the wait list (311) are as follows:

  • 8 folks with 64 tickets, each has a 77.5% chance of getting drawn (5.7 estimated to be drawn in lottery + .5 estimated to be drawn for wait list)
  • 71 folks with 32 tickets, each has a 52.6% chance of getting drawn (32.6 + 4.8)
  • 161 folks with 16 tickets, each has a 31.1% chance of getting drawn (42.6 + 7.5)
  • 283 folks with 8 tickets, each has a 17.0% chance of getting drawn (40.3 + 7.9)
  • 668 folks with 4 tickets, each has a 8.9% chance of getting drawn (49.4 + 10.1)
  • 1060 folks with 2 tickets, each has a 4.6% chance of getting drawn (39.9 + 8.4)
  • 2658 folks with 1 ticket, each has a 2.3% chance of getting drawn (50.5 + 10.8)

So what are the chances of getting into the race if you are selected for the wait list? In 2017 the last person to get a spot on the starting line was drawn 39th on the wait list. Twelve runners before that 39th runner either removed themselves or declined the spot when offered. Look here for complete 2017 wait list data, including when each runner was offered a spot.

Finally, here are the 105 automatics (down from 117 in 2017 lottery) which will be identified on the entrants list when we post on wser.org after the lottery.

Good luck to all.

2017 Runner Survey Results

Here are the results of the independent Western States Endurance Run (WSER) Runner Survey from the June 24-25, 2017 race, conducted by ultralive.net.

WSER runner registration takes place in Squaw Valley Friday before race day and 2017 allowed for another year of the ultralive survey team to be in position. Runners are happy to participate while they wait in line for check-in providing us a 92% participation rate of the 369 starters. At the suggestion of a fellow data geek we added an interesting question this year about the diet of WS runners!

Here are the surveys from 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Survey Questions

The runners were asked the following questions. Data was recorded by bib number allowing us to correlate the responses to finish times to make the analysis even more interesting. All data however is compiled and reported anonymously:

  • Number of 100’s completed
  • Number of years running ultras
  • Will they use a crew?
  • Will they use a pacer?
  • Did they attend the Memorial weekend training camp
  • Shoe brand
  • Sock brand
  • Pack type/brand
  • Lighting brand
  • Did they pay for coaching services?
  • Do they follow a non-traditional diet?
  • A few questions about lodging for the race to share with host sites

This year’s race proved even more challenging than past with pre- and in-race weather conditions. We can assume that had an impact on completion rate as well as finishing time. Of the 369 starters we saw 248 finishers (67.2%) under 30 hours of which 82 (22.2%) finished under the coveted 24 hour mark for a Silver Buckle (for comparison 28.9% in 2016).

Finish Hour

For sub 24 hour finishers completing the survey, 25 out of 69 (36.2%) finished in the 23rd “Golden Hour” of the race to get a silver buckle (compared to 29.4% in 2016). In the last two hours of the race, there were 101 (40%) finishers. The busiest times on the track are typically between 4-5 AM and 9-11 AM on Sunday morning and 2017 proved no different. The graphs show the distribution of finishers by hour (16 hours to 29 hours).

 

There was no difference in experience between those that started and finished the race with an average completing 5.5 100-mile races before toeing the start line at Squaw and 7.5 years running ultras.

There was an interesting difference however between sub and over-24 hour finish times with sub-24 hour finishers completing only 4.3 100-milers in their 7 years of ultra experience versus over 24-hour finishers with 6 100-mile races under their belts and 7.7 years of ultra experience.

Those that Did Not Finish (DNF) (121 in total) had on average completed 5.8 100-mile races before arriving in Squaw with 8 of them selecting WSER as their first 100 mile race. They also had an average of 7.5 years in ultrarunning, consistent with those who did eventually finish the race.

Number of 100-mile races completed prior to WS100 by finish hour

Number of years running Ultras finish hour

Shoes

This is the fourth year Hoka was the most popular shoe (25%) for all finishers with Altra making a significant jump from from 16% of our survey respondents in 2016 to 23% this year. Salomon squeaked past Brooks in our survey respondents this year for third place. There was a shift in shoes compared to finish hour this year with 31% of sub-24 finishers now wearing altra over 15% Hoka. We acknowledge some runners did plan to change shoes during the race and may have changed to a different brand so we asked that they provide the brand they planned to start the race wearing.

Shoes Worn by All Runners:

Shoes Worn by SUB-24 Hour Finishers:

 

Socks

Injinji continues to be the primary choice for all finishers with Drymax’s popularity increasing again this year like last. There was another shift however with sub-24 finishers who prefer Drymax over injinji.

Socks Worn by All Runners:

Socks Worn by SUB-24 Hour Finishers:

Paid Coaching Services

There was a decrease in the number of athletes using coaching services to 24% of all runners compared to 41% of 2016 starters using a coach. Near the same amount of those finishing the race used a coach and of the sub-24 hour finishers, 19% used a coach comparable to the 17.5% in 2016.

% of Starters Using Coaching Services

% of Finishers Using Coaching Services

% of Sub-24 Hour Finishers Using Coaching Services

Memorial Weekend Training Camp

The training camp held on Memorial Weekend is a great weekend to get on the course for those running, supporting or spectating the race. This year one-third of racers were able to attend at least one of the training days and while previewing the course may help it is not required to finish the race.

Attended Memorial Weekend Training Runs

% of All Starters, Sub-24 Finishers, over 24-Hour Finishers and those who DNF’d Attending Memorial Weekend Training Runs

Crew

The use of a crew and/or pacer are personal preference during a 100-mile race but may be more popular at WS – what are your thoughts? Here is a breakdown of crew and pacer use for all starters, finishers and those that DNF’d. The data may suggest that the use of a crew and/or pacer may increase your chance of finishing a 100-mile race and even finishing in under 24 hours.

Crew Use

Pacer Use

Lighting

Although Petzl’s popularity dropped slightly, it remains the favorite light brand for all runners regardless of finish time (sub or over-24 hour).  And the winner (Ryan Sandes) did require a headlamp this year for the final miles of the race.

Sub 24-Hour Lighting Choice

Over 24-Hour Lighting Choice

Hydration/Packs

For all runners, Ultimate Direction and Salomon almost tied for the first place spot compared to last year from a small decrease for UD and similar increase for Salomon use. Nathan maintained third place.

This remained consistent for all finishers

Among the sub-24 hour finishers however Nathan surpassed Salomon for second:

We saw a decrease compared to last year in the number of all runners opting for handhelds in lieu of a hydration pack (5% total) likely due to the known hot weather forecast they would face during the day.

 

Diet

A new question we added this year was at the suggestion of another data geek ultrarunner… if a runner follows any non-traditional diet. The question did generate a lot of good laughs and we will have to add the beer and pizza diet to next year’s survey however here is how the respondents answered:

Data Accuracy

369 runners started the 2017 Western States 100 Mile Endurance Run

Ultralive.net team surveyed a majority of those runners through the registration process at Squaw

Final survey reflects N = 341 (92%) athletes though individual questions may vary if athlete did not answer or know answer.

Credits

The team would like to thank all of the runners who took time to talk with us and answer these questions.

Many thanks to the ultralive.net survey team: Kara Teklinski and Monique Winkler.

Analysis by Kara Teklinski who acknowledges she is not a statistical analysis expert and welcomes any thoughts!

2017 WS 100 Press Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CONTACT: John Trent, media relations, (775) 842-4871, press@wser.org

WESTERN STATES 100 STORYLINES: CAN JIM WALMSLEY SET THE MEN’S RECORD; PAST THREE WOMEN’S CHAMPS HEADLINE A STELLAR WOMEN’S FIELD

Jim Walmsley looks to atone for 2016’s wrong turn; previous three women’s champions Violett, Boulet, Lickteig head women’s field

In 2016 at the Western States Endurance Run, Jim Walmsley of Flagstaff, Ariz., was looking to make history, setting out on a scorching course-record pace. Near mile 92 and still on record pace, however, Walmsley took a wrong turn. He kept going for at least two miles before correcting his error. By then, it was too late to set the record, or to win. Andrew Miller became Western States’ youngest men’s champion. Walmsley, to his credit, walked to the finish line and finished in 18:45.

On Saturday, June 24, Walmsley, 27, makes his return to Western States. He’s again stated he hopes to break the course record of the world’s oldest 100-miler. Walmsley will headline a talented men’s field. The women’s field will feature the three different champions from the three years previous in what promises to be the most competitive women’s race in the Run’s 44-year history – Stephanie Howe Violett (2014), Magdalena Boulet (2015) and Kaci Lickteig (2016).

“For different reasons, both our men’s and women’s races this year promise to be among our most interesting ever,” Race Director Craig Thornley said. “Jim Walmsley captured the imagination of the ultra world last year with a run that was absolutely incredible for more than 90 miles. People have been waiting with a lot of anticipation to see how he does on Saturday.

“With Kaci, Magda and Stephanie racing this year, we’re in the unique position of seeing our past three women’s champions, all who are running great this year, matching up against each other. We have several newcomers and high-placing finishers from last year who are also definitely in the mix as well. One publication has called our women’s field ‘ridiculous.’ I can’t disagree with that assessment.”

A field of 369 entrants from more than 30 countries, and more than 40 states will make the 44th annual, 100.2-mile trek on Saturday morning from Squaw Valley, Calif., the site of the 1960 Winter Olympic Games, before finishing at Placer High School in Auburn, Calif.

Following an endless winter, this year’s course will feature several miles of snow in the early going, which will require volunteers at two aid stations – Lyon Ridge at mile 10 and Red Star Ridge at mile 16 – to hike in, over snow, with supplies on Friday.

Walmsley has had a stellar spring, including a scintillating 8:20 finish at the Gorge Waterfalls 100K in April. Top returners from 2016 include third-place finisher Jeff Browning, of Bend, Ore., as well as three-time Leadville 100 champion Ian Sharman, who finished sixth. Ryan Sandes of South Africa, a former Western States runner-up and Thomas Lorblanchet of France, fifth the past two years, head a strong international contingent.

Lickteig, 30, of Omaha, Neb., put forth one of the great performances in Western States a year ago. Her time of 17:57 was second-fastest in race history when temperatures had reached more than 90 degrees. She has shown great consistency at Western States, having finished second in 2015 and sixth in 2014. Boulet, 43, of Oakland, Calif., made her Western States debut in 2015, winning in 19:05. The former 2008 U.S. Olympic marathoner has had a strong spring of training and racing, highlighted by her tie for second place with Lickteig at the Lake Sonoma 50-miler in April. Howe Violett, 33, of Bend, Ore., is continuing a strong comeback from foot surgery a little more than a year ago. The 2014 Western States women’s champion beat all men and women at the Bandera 100K in Texas in January. These WS champions will be pressed by several notable women, including 2016 WS runner-up Amy Sproston, of Bend, Ore.; first-time entrants Camille Herron (who won the prestigious Comrades Marathon in South Africa earlier this month) and Clare Gallagher, the 2016 Leadville champion; and ageless Meghan (Arbogast) Laws, 56, of Cool, Calif., a perennial top-10 finisher.

Two top senior competitors are expected to make a run at history. Gunhild Swanson, 72, is vying to become the oldest women’s finisher yet again, having already done this once already with her 2015 finish at age 70. Wally Hesseltine, 73, who missed officially finishing in 2016 by about one minute, will attempt to become the oldest finisher in race history.

WHAT: 44th running of the Western States 100-mile Endurance Run

WHEN: Saturday, June 24, 5 a.m. start at Squaw Valley, Calif., finish at Placer High School, Auburn, Calif. More than 360 trail runners from more than 30 countries and more than 40 states to compete. 

DRUG TESTING FOR 2017 RACE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CONTACT: John Trent, media relations, (775) 842-4871 or press@wser.org.

WESTERN STATES ENDURANCE RUN ANNOUNCES DRUG TESTING FOR 2017 RACE

WSER releases “Drug Testing Policy and Protocols” for the world’s oldest and most prestigious 100-mile trail run, June 24-25

The Western States Endurance Run has released a “Drug Testing Policy and Protocols” document to all runners entered in this year’s event, with the purpose of conducting drug testing for the first time in the Run’s 44-year history on June 24-25, WSER President John Medinger announced today.

“Drug testing at this year’s Western States is an important and necessary step in deterring use of performance-enhancing drugs in our sport,” Medinger said on behalf of the Run’s Board of Trustees, who earlier this year voted unanimously to implement drug testing in 2017. “We are hoping that by taking a leadership role regarding this important issue, other races throughout the world will also make a strong commitment and take a strong stance toward fostering a drug-free future for our sport.”

The policy and protocols document states that WSER has a zero-tolerance policy regarding the use of performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs). The purpose of drug-testing controls is to:

  • Deter the use of performance-enhancing drugs in competition;
  • Identify any participant who may be using performance-enhancing drugs;
  • Educate all participants about the health risks and unfair advantages created through the use of performance-enhancing drugs;
  • Promote a drug-free sport.

Post-competition drug testing at this year’s Run will be conducted by an independent third party drug testing administrator commissioned by WSER. The independent third party administrator will ensure that all drug collection and testing is done in accordance with World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) rules and regulations. Urine samples will be collected under direct observations of the independent administrator and tested for WADA’s listed of banned substances in accordance with WADA’s International Standards for Testing and Investigations (ISTI).

All individuals who are on the final start list for Western States could be subject to drug testing at this year’s Run. The Board of Trustees, in its sole discretion, will determine which runners will be tested. While WSER reserves the right to select any runner for testing, the goal will be to test from the elite men’s and women’s finisher’s field, including top age-group competitors. Examples of possible selections include top 10 men and women finishers; age-group winners; or 10 randomly selected (but pre-determined) finishers from the top 20 men and women.

Drug testing will be conducted immediately following competition in a secure area near the finish line at Placer High School in Auburn, Calif. Runners selected will be notified by a WSER official when they finish the race. During the sample-taking process, the selected runners will be under the supervision of the independent drug-testing administrator. Waiver and liability forms as well as a past medical history inventory that will include a listing of any drugs that are used for legitimate medical purposes, will be filled out by the selected runners.

The Drug Testing Policy and Protocols document also includes steps and information regarding an appeals process, definition of legitimate medical use, and policy regarding public release of drug test results. Violations of the anti-doping policies of the Run will be determined by the Board of Trustees and will result in a lifetime ban from the Western States 100-Mile Endurance Run. The person’s name and finishing time will be removed from all official results of that year’s Run, and any awards presented by the Run’s organizers, including finisher’s belt buckle, shall be returned.

To read the Drug Testing Policy and Protocols document, go to: wser.org/drug-testing-policy-and-protocols

Now in its 44th year, the Western States 100-Mile Endurance Run is the world’s oldest and most prestigious 100-mile trail run. 369 runners from throughout the United States and more than 30 countries will start at 5 a.m. on Saturday, June 24, 2017, at the site of the 1960 Winter Olympics, Squaw Valley, Calif., and travel 100.2 miles through Granite Chief Wilderness and into the canyons of the historic California Gold Country before finishing in Auburn, Calif.

2017 Lottery Statistics

Last updated: December 2, 2016 at 10:35 am

There are 4248 applicants for the 2017 Western States Lottery to be held on December 3, 2016 at Placer High School in Auburn from 8:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. Race Date for the 44th running of the event is June 24, 25, 2017.

Growth in the number of applicants continues to soar with a 21% increase in 2017 after a 37% increase in 2016.

wslotteryapplicants

 

As described on our lottery page, each runner who enters the lottery and fails to gain entry into the Run (and otherwise doesn’t gain an entry via other means such as an aid station, sponsor, Altra Golden Ticket spot, or Ultrarunning Magazine Series winners) will have additional tickets in the hat when entering the lottery the following year, thus improving the probability of being selected. Every lottery applicant will receive 2^(n-1) tickets in the hat where n is the number of consecutive years entering the lottery without gaining entry. That is, 1st year applicants = 1 ticket, 2nd year = 2 tickets, 3rd year = 4 tickets, 4th year = 8 tickets, 5th year = 16 tickets, 6th year = 32 tickets, 7th year = 64 tickets. The maximum number of years for the 2017 lottery is 7, or 64 tickets.

You can view the applicants and their ticket counts here. Here is the pdf of the tickets that will be printed, cut and then put into the barrel here on Friday December 2.

Starting in 2017 we are implementing a wait list model instead of overbooking like we have for decades. With the magic number allowed through the Granite Chief Wilderness being 369 and 117 automatic entrants, we will draw 250 in the lottery. The final two entrants to get to 369 will be drawn from those in the audience. We will also draw an additional 50 names for the ordered wait list. The probabilities for being selected as one of the 250 in the lottery are as follows:

  • 2 folks with 64 tickets, each has a 80% chance of getting drawn (1.6 estimated to be drawn)
  • 31 folks with 32 tickets, each has a 55.1% chance of getting drawn (17.1)
  • 112 folks with 16 tickets, each has a 33.0% chance of getting drawn (37.0)
  • 256 folks with 8 tickets, each has a 18.1% chance of getting drawn (46.6)
  • 397 folks with 4 tickets, each has a 9.5% chance of getting drawn (37.9)
  • 1023 folks with 2 tickets, each has a 4.9% chance of getting drawn (49.9)
  • 2427 folks with 1 ticket, each has a 2.5% chance of getting drawn (60.0)

Here are the 117 automatics (113 in 2016 lottery) which will be identified on the entrants list when we post on wser.org after the lottery.

  • 30 (28 in 2016) Race Admin (aid stations, trail crew, etc)
  • 24 (24) Golden Ticket Races
  • 20 (22) Sponsor slots
  • 19 (14) Top Ten Runners from 2016
  • 10 (10) Raffle Winners
  • 6 (6) UTWT elite foreign athletes
  • 3 (2) Special Consideration
  • 2 (3) Runners going for 10th finish
  • 1 (2) WSER Trustees
  • 1 (0) Silver Legend
  • 1 (#LetGordyRun) Gordy
  • 0 (2) Foreign Consideration

The lottery will take place at the Placer HS auditorium, in Auburn, CA. We will begin introductions a little before 8:30 a.m. PST and then begin drawing names shortly thereafter. We expect to be done by 11 a.m.

As names are pulled from the hat, they will be posted at http://www.ultralive.net/lottery as close to real-time as possible. There will also be a live video feed on our Facebook Page.

Good luck to everybody in the lottery.